January 29, 2024
According to Sagoff, a general force is a process or interaction that occurs in ecology. In order for a model to adequately represent a “force” in nature, it must align with laboratory experiments, historical studies, as well as inform ecologists on where to find probable intervening factors. Overall, a well-rounded data-driven approach is essential in deeming something a general force in nature. Sagoff also distinguishes external forces from internal ones. Using the premise that ecological systems exist as units with boundaries, you can understand external forces in terms of intruding on the system in some way from the outside of those established boundaries. Anything else can be considered internal. Additionally, Sagoff highlights the dichotomy between strategic and tactical models. Strategic models are simple and more general and tactical models are more complex and specific. The Lotka-Volterra model of predator-prey interaction is used as an example of a failure to be either a strategic or tactical model. This is because the model cannot pass necessary data-driven testing. The Isle of Royale study is also helpful in explaining the fact that scientific predictions are not always as telling as they may seem. For example, unpredictable events ended up being the key factors in the relative sizes of wolf and moose populations.
In today’s virtual class, we did an “in-class” exercise breaking down general forces. The most helpful example was the wolves and moose Isle Royale example. We watched two videos on the topic: https://youtu.be/PdwnfPurXcs?si=T8Pdu14EEWBGV_nV and https://youtu.be/DS-4IsDg7mA?si=ua4ty1egzyeQisM3. It was interesting to see the discrepancies between scientific hypothesis and the outcome of unexpected events. For example, “The Wolves and Moose of Isle Royale” video explains how the hot climate negatively impacted moose and caused them to eat less. Additionally, a tick found to be lethal to moose was able to thrive in the warm climate. The moose are doing poorly due to the changing climate so the wolves are doing poorly because the moose are doing poorly. This begs the question of whether or not humans should intervene and potentially reintroduce more wolves to the area.
I find that it is essential to question certain theories and “forces” because of situations like the one in Isle Royale. For example, unexpected factors related to climate change drastically shifted the predator-prey relationships between moose and wolves. Now that we know some of the causes of a declining moose and wolf population and have seen the negative effects it has on the ecosystem, do we have a duty to intervene? When it comes to areas like Isle Royale, we pride ourselves in it being this undisturbed area of land where nature gets to do its thing. But should we sit back and watch populations suffer because man-made disasters such as climate change? Shouldn’t we deal with the mess we made? How do we know what the best course of action is? Let us say we choose to introduce more wolves to the area, as their population is in a state of rapid decline. What are the implications of this sort of intervention? Can we really ever know? Is it worth the risk? Because of all of the unknowns it can be challenging to determine what the best course of action is. That being said, because climate change is primarily due to human behavior, I find it necessary that we continue to research potential solutions to affected ecosystems.
